Sunak's ratings are significantly better than either of his predecessors. But the party continues to languish in the polls. Digging deeper into the polling reveals some possible reasons why.
There seems to be a chance though that with a series of moderate policies such as on childcare etc plus an impression that they're steadying the economy, Sunak could boost the party's standing sufficiently to pull their vote share into the mid 30s over next year. And then we are likely into hung parliament territory. Big risk Labour is benefitting from not being the Tories... if Sunak even slightly detoxifies them, that's a potential issue for Labour surely...
Good point, but have they passed the point of no return? Have the public (and particularly the proportion likely to vote) received a general impression of Conservative corruption that means their theoretical vote floor may in fact be lower than we think?
Balancing that, the public aren't enthused by Labour. More favourable, yes, but not especially excited. Does this put us more into 1964 territory than 1997? I hope not, but I'm not being too optimistic just yet.
Ironic that had the brexiters not purged so many moderate/ remainer Tories the party now might be doing better with us. We’re not stupid, no matter how attractive Sunak looks we know very well what his party is about and how likely that’s going to change this side of the next GE.
Hi Josh, and thank you for two exceptionally detailed and thought-through pieces.
While I find your case unarguably, my concerns are around Conservative control of various processes (although I doubt voter ID will make much difference) and the skewed media landscape.
To the second point, could this all get much narrower by voting day because the Conservatives effectively control much of the "air game", as opposed to the "ground game" where they're clearly going to struggle?
Do you have the data for what % of Remainers are favourable to both and what % favourable to neither?
And same for Leavers.
Would expect that Remainers more favourable for both?
There seems to be a chance though that with a series of moderate policies such as on childcare etc plus an impression that they're steadying the economy, Sunak could boost the party's standing sufficiently to pull their vote share into the mid 30s over next year. And then we are likely into hung parliament territory. Big risk Labour is benefitting from not being the Tories... if Sunak even slightly detoxifies them, that's a potential issue for Labour surely...
Good point, but have they passed the point of no return? Have the public (and particularly the proportion likely to vote) received a general impression of Conservative corruption that means their theoretical vote floor may in fact be lower than we think?
Balancing that, the public aren't enthused by Labour. More favourable, yes, but not especially excited. Does this put us more into 1964 territory than 1997? I hope not, but I'm not being too optimistic just yet.
Ironic that had the brexiters not purged so many moderate/ remainer Tories the party now might be doing better with us. We’re not stupid, no matter how attractive Sunak looks we know very well what his party is about and how likely that’s going to change this side of the next GE.
Hi Josh, and thank you for two exceptionally detailed and thought-through pieces.
While I find your case unarguably, my concerns are around Conservative control of various processes (although I doubt voter ID will make much difference) and the skewed media landscape.
To the second point, could this all get much narrower by voting day because the Conservatives effectively control much of the "air game", as opposed to the "ground game" where they're clearly going to struggle?